|
Post by sydneyfan on Feb 3, 2020 0:04:26 GMT
Thoughts on this?. Looks like the Democratic establishment are pretty sure it's not Sanders.
|
|
lukin
Junior Member
Posts: 62
|
Post by lukin on Feb 3, 2020 7:43:55 GMT
I'm following it pretty closely (always have) - it's kind of hard to know who has the best chance, if the last election taught us anything it should be that nobody can predict electability. I think that the best outcome would be if everyone just voted in the primaries for whoever they best align with, and then don't get all bitter if their candidate doesn't make it like what happened with Sanders last time.
Warren is my favourite, followed by Sanders then probably Pete and Klobouchar, with Biden in last place. Just think he's not going to drive the climate issue as hard as it needs to be, and that's the #1 issue for me (obviously I'm not an American so the issues that affect the whole world are going to matter to me more than healthcare etc, although I think that Biden is too conservative on that too). Any of the candidates is better than Trump though.
|
|
|
Post by raisemyglass on Feb 3, 2020 19:34:58 GMT
At this point in the game, Mike Bloomberg is going all in on campaign adds that is for sure. Far and away the most of any candidate right now.
|
|
|
Post by sydneyfan on Feb 4, 2020 1:05:35 GMT
|
|
lukin
Junior Member
Posts: 62
|
Post by lukin on Feb 4, 2020 9:28:39 GMT
Iowa. What a fucking mess.
|
|
|
Post by sydneyfan on Feb 5, 2020 0:24:38 GMT
Yeah, it wasn't the most auspicious start, that's for sure. Looks like Buttigieg is narrowly leading Sanders at this point. But I think these are only partial results, I'm not entirely clear where they are up to in the counting.
|
|
|
Post by sydneyfan on Feb 5, 2020 0:27:54 GMT
Bad result for Biden regardless. But its early days yet.
|
|
|
Post by sleigher on Feb 5, 2020 0:28:34 GMT
|
|
|
Post by sydneyfan on Feb 12, 2020 3:25:17 GMT
New Hampshire is looking like a Sander vs Buttigieg showdown again. More bad news for Biden.
On the subject of Sanders, the parallels between him and Jeremy Corbyn in the UK are interesting, in terms of being a left-wing leader that has intense factional support, but not necessarily the support of the broader party as a whole. It all ended in tears for Corbyn, but that's not to say it necessarily will for Sanders. Different man, different country. I can see why establishment Democrats are nervous though.
|
|
lukin
Junior Member
Posts: 62
|
Post by lukin on Feb 12, 2020 11:48:29 GMT
New Hampshire is looking like a Sander vs Buttigieg showdown again. More bad news for Biden. On the subject of Sanders, the parallels between him and Jeremy Corbyn in the UK are interesting, in terms of being a left-wing leader that has intense factional support, but not necessarily the support of the broader party as a whole. It all ended in tears for Corbyn, but that's not to say it necessarily will for Sanders. Different man, different country. I can see why establishment Democrats are nervous though. Electability is a funny thing eh. What is it really? Sanders - maybe doesn't have the backing of establishment democrats, although if he's the nominee they will probably vote for him any because they want to get rid of Trump. And then he seems to excite younger voters (even though he's the oldest candidate) so he might actually be able to increase younger turnout and swing it that way. Buttiegieg - more moderate candidate so probably more palatable to the Dem establishment, but his lack of support among African-American voters is a concern. Without really good voter African-American voter turnout, you can just hand Trump the keys again. Also, him being gay is an unknown quantity in terms of what impact that would have. I would love to think it wouldn't matter but hard to say. Biden - very popular with African-Americans so may get good turnout there, but seen as too moderate/establishment/not exciting for younger voters so may not get them. Hard to say how much of an impact the whole Ukraine/Burisma/Hunter Biden stain that Trump has been painting him with will have. Warren - I think she should be able to appeal to a pretty large cross-section of voters, but obviously, she's a woman and who knows how much of a part sexism will play. Klobouchar - moderate so could have good appeal to those Obama/Trump voters, from the mid-west and has a strong winning record in Minnesota, so could possibly be a really good chance to win back Wisconsin and Michigan which were key losses last time around for Clinton. Seems to be performing very well in debates and that boosted her performance in New Hampshire, she would go toe-to-toe with Trump pretty well in a debate I reckon. Again: see sexism. So yeah, it's pretty complicated if you try to vote based on who is the most electable, I think people should legitimately vote for the person who they feel represents their views best - I'm not an American (just follow US politics very closely) but my vote if I had one would have gone to Warren, unfortunately her NH showing today was really disappointing and it's going to be pretty hard for her to bounce back from here.
|
|
|
Post by favoriteever on Feb 12, 2020 23:06:46 GMT
Sanders has a very dedicated group of followers. Part of me hopes he gets the nomination so that the dems don't lose that base the way they did in 2016. However, I worry that he will not appeal to voters who have become displeased with Trump, but don't want someone so far to the left. It's tough. I'm very nervous for November this year, especially knowing there are so many people who are totally fine with some of the things going on here lately.
|
|
|
Post by sydneyfan on Feb 13, 2020 3:51:36 GMT
Lukin, you make a really good point about the issue of electability and how difficult it is to define. I suppose one of the things about being in a country like Australia that has compulsory voting is that electability is a little easier to pin down. If almost everyone votes, you can bet a centrist is going to win. They might swing to the left or right depending on the mood of the electorate, but overall whoever wins will be pretty much a moderate. That's not so clear cut in the US system, obvs. Hence Trump. Cheers for the summary of the Democrats candidates too. My knowledge of US politics is not very good, so that was a really useful summary for me.
And favoriteever, when Trump first got elected I was pretty sure he was going to be one term wonder. As time has passed though, it seems like the odds of a second term are stronger than ever. Nothing much seems to touch him, his base seems welded on at this point. I guess we'll see in November
|
|
|
Post by sydneyfan on Feb 20, 2020 6:10:09 GMT
Anyone watch the latest Dem debate? I didnt, but am just reading some media reaction now. They seem to conclude that Bloomberg didnt do well.
|
|
|
Post by hithere on Feb 21, 2020 15:45:55 GMT
I can't watch them, but the blurbs I saw were pretty damnning for Bloomie.
THe literal last thing I want is another oligarch in office. Fortunately I think Bloomburg doesn't have a chance.
Elizabeth Warren is a STUNNING candidate, but she's continuously downplayed in the media coverage. It's a massive shame.
|
|
|
Post by jackstark211 on Feb 21, 2020 18:30:41 GMT
Warren shoved her foot so far up Bloombergs ass it was amazing. He looked like he wanted to puke.
|
|